According to data from analyst firm Gartner, global semiconductor revenue is expected to reach US$676 billion (about 4.48 trillion yuan) in 2022, an increase of 13.6% from 2021. According to Evertiq, Alan Priestley, research vice president at Gartner, said, “In 2022, semiconductor average selling price (ASP) increases due to semiconductor stockouts will continue to be the main driver of global semiconductor market growth, but by 2022, semiconductor components are expected to increase. The overall tightness of supply in the market will gradually ease, and prices will stabilize as inventory conditions improve .”
The latest forecast is up to $37 billion from the previous quarter. With the slowdown in the growth of personal computers, smartphones, and server-end markets, it is expected that semiconductor supply and demand will gradually balance in 2022, and the growth of semiconductor revenue will gradually slow down. Chip shortages will continue to be one of the concerns in the electronics supply chain in 2022 and will impact major electronics markets differently depending on the type of semiconductor device.
Most semiconductor shortages in the PC and smartphone segments have eased as production enters the off-season and the market has increased semiconductor supply. However, some semiconductor devices will continue to be in shortage in the automotive supply chain through the end of 2022. Until 2023, automotive applications will continue to face component supply constraints, especially MCUs, PMICs, and voltage regulators.
Priestley said: “While 2022 unit production of automotive will increase by 12.5%, which is lower than expected, the ASP of semiconductor devices is expected to grow in double digits (19%) in 2022 due to continued tight supply. will remain high.” “Automotive high-performance computing, EV/HEV, and advanced driver assistance systems will lead the growth of the automotive electronics industry during the forecast period.”
The memory market will remain the largest segment during the forecast period and is expected to account for 31.4% of the overall semiconductor market in 2022. DRAM and NAND are expected to be in short supply in the second quarter of 2022. The NAND market will be oversupplied from the fourth quarter of 2022, and the DRAM market will be oversupplied from the second half of 2023. Bit shipments and higher annual average ASPs will sustain revenue growth in both markets in 2022, with DRAM expected to grow 22.8% and NAND expected to grow 38.1%.
Semiconductor revenue for smartphones is expected to grow 15.2% in 2022, with 5G smartphone production rising 45.3% to 808 million units, accounting for 55% of all smartphone production. The massive migration from 4G to 5G by major smartphone chipset suppliers has resulted in a temporary shortage of 4G SoC baseband ICs starting in the second half of 2021. The increase in 5G baseband IC inventory will lead to lower 5G smartphone prices and further accelerate 5G penetration during the forecast period.
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