Omdia: It is estimated that the global panel output value will decline by 15% this year

Since the second half of last year, in the context of declining terminal demand and panel manufacturers maintaining high utilization rates, the supply of display panels has exceeded the market demand, resulting in the decline of its quotations so far. Cut in half. news, since the second half of last year, under the background of declining terminal demand and panel manufacturers maintaining a high utilization rate, the supply of display panels exceeds the market demand, resulting in its price has been falling so far, and the average price of some sizes of LCD panels is relatively high. Last year's highs have been cut in half.

According to the Business Times, Xie Qinyi, research director of Omdia Display, said that the growth rate of panel shipment area has been cut to 3% this year, and under the impact of the decline in panel prices, it is estimated that the global panel output value will drop by 15% this year, which is the first negative in recent years. growing up. With panel prices reaching the previous low and brand factories increasing orders for the year-end peak season, it is expected that panel prices will stop falling in the third quarter, but it remains to be seen whether prices can reverse upward.

Xie Qinyi said that 2022 will be a year of contradiction and change. From the perspective of the overall economic environment, the Russian-Ukrainian war, inflation, and China’s closed management have all affected the consumption of the terminal market. The panel industry has experienced severe shortages from last year’s shortage to oversupply. Changes in the ground and subsequent changes in panel prices will also cause changes in the supply chain.

It was thought that the oversupply was over in the first quarter, but because of the war and inflation, the brand revised its shipment target for this year. The supply-demand ratio in the second quarter was 18.5%, a serious oversupply. It is expected that the demand and purchase of complete machines will gradually pick up in the second half of this year because the price has reached a low point, and the third quarter will also increase orders for the year-end peak season. The oversupply situation will slow down, and the supply-demand ratio will be about 10%. But is the demand so strong that panel prices reverse or just stop falling? Still need to observe.

From the perspective of price trends, Xie Qinyi analyzed that the fourth quarter of 2019 was the previous low point. From the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022, the prices of many panels were cut in half, with a drop of 50% or even 70%. Downward, panels such as 55-inch, 65-inch, and 75-inch panels will drop to historical lows due to the supply of 10.5-generation capacity. Panel makers have been making money in the past few quarters, and they have faced losses since the second quarter. Panel makers have recently made adjustments and turned cash into war reserves. For example, Taiwan panel makers reduced capital, mainland panel makers issued bonds, and the board of directors change, and so on.

It is worth noting that despite the bad market conditions, TCL Technology, Shentianma and other manufacturers are still expanding the high-generation line to further expand production capacity . Industry insiders pointed out that with the release of new factory production capacity, these leading manufacturers will seize more market share, resulting in Taiwan panel manufacturers and domestic second-tier panel manufacturers will gradually withdraw from the market, and the industry will usher in a new round of reshuffle.

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