According to the news from Jiwei.com, IC Insights, a world-renowned semiconductor consulting organization, has updated the Macleans Report. The update includes several year-end forecasts on semiconductor sales, capital expenditures and the ranking of top sales leaders. And made a forecast ranking of the top 25 semiconductor suppliers ranked by sales growth rate (as shown in the figure below).
The new crown epidemic has changed the global semiconductor industry, but the entire market rebounded in 2021, and the semiconductor market is expected to grow by 23% this year. Semiconductor unit shipments have grown strongly by 20%, and the total average selling price (ASP) of semiconductors is expected to increase by 3% year-on-year. The 23% increase will be the second largest increase in the global semiconductor market since 2010, when semiconductor sales surged 33% after the 2008 and 2009 financial crises and the global economic recession.
The vast majority of semiconductor companies led by AMD, MediaTek, Nvidia and Qualcomm have braved the tide of strong market growth this year. The four Fabless companies have consolidated their advantages in the competition to provide leading solutions for artificial intelligence and machine learning applications and for 5G smartphones.
The figure above shows that AMD is expected to top the list with 65% sales growth this year . The company has achieved market share growth in many areas, especially in terms of processors used in data center servers, and has become a leading supplier in this booming market. In addition, AMD also serves the mass market of consumer PCs and gaming consoles.
IC Insights predicts that MediaTek is expected to achieve 60% revenue growth this year . MediaTek’s chips can be used in some of the largest brands of smartphones, TVs and voice assistants, as well as Chromebooks, fitness equipment, Wi-Fi routers and many other systems. MediaTek has established its leading position by providing 4nm-based 5G technology for these applications in its chips. Throughout 2021, MediaTek increased the production of interconnected semiconductors to meet strong market demand and offset the impact of the decline in mobile SoC sales in the fourth quarter of this year.
The agency also expects Nvidia's revenue this year to grow 54% . Nvidia is a global leader in GPU research and development. The product sequence has been extended to artificial intelligence chips used in supercomputers, data centers, and driverless cars. Its chips are also widely used in Bitcoin mining applications. In the fourth quarter of this year, its processor has a new growth momentum-Meta Universe.
Qualcomm is the world's largest smartphone chip manufacturer. IC Insights predicts that its semiconductor sales will increase by 51% this year . Qualcomm is currently working to reduce its reliance on smartphones, and is turning to higher growth opportunities in automotive, wireless home broadband and industrial applications. Driven by the growth of these new markets, Qualcomm has given optimistic sales forecasts for the next few years in its recent quarterly earnings outlook.
The combined sales of these four Fabless will increase from 54.8 billion U.S. dollars last year to 85.4 billion U.S. dollars this year, an increase of 56%. The four companies’ combined sales this year are expected to increase by US$30.6 billion, accounting for 31% of the total global semiconductor sales increase of US$97.4 billion this year. Therefore, TSMC, UMC, GF and SMIC are expected to produce Fabless companies. It is no surprise that International will also record strong sales growth this year.
IC Insights also predicts that among the 25 largest semiconductor companies, 10 will have semiconductor revenues that will grow by more than 30% this year , and 23 are expected to achieve double-digit growth. However, it is surprising that the semiconductor revenue of Intel, the world's second largest semiconductor supplier, is expected to fall by 1% year-on-year. Sony, the world's 18th largest semiconductor supplier, expects revenue to fall by 3% year-on-year.
One problem Intel faces in 2021 is continued tight supply, which limits its notebook sales. Intel stated that its partners have been unable to purchase enough components to manufacture any number of laptops, which has led to a reduction in Intel CPU orders. At the same time, Intel's newly established IFS (Intel Foundry Services) Group received its first batch of foundry revenue in the third quarter of this year. Intel is betting vigorously that its foundry service division will become an important part of its future sales. Shipping customers' chips for revenue is an important first step in this process.
There is a similar story behind Sony’s sales decline forecast. Sony’s PS5 game console’s shipments failed to reach the target in 2021, mainly due to the shortage of chips caused by the new crown epidemic in Southeast Asia. As game console shipments decrease, fewer game console processors are needed. In the fourth quarter of 2021, Sony revealed that it is negotiating with TSMC to produce computer chips in Japan to ensure stable supply.
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