Research firm Knometa Research's latest "2022 Global Wafer Capacity Report" predicts that although recent fab expansion plans are aggressive and may lead to some price reduction pressure in 2024, it will not lead to a market downturn in 2024, which is in line with other analysts. Opinions are inconsistent.
The report noted that in 2021, chipmakers increased production capacity by 8.6% in response to widespread shortages. In 2022, capacity is expected to grow by 8.7% and in 2023 by 8.2%. In addition, as a percentage of semiconductor operating income, fab and equipment capital expenditures will be 25% in 2021, which is the highest value since 2001 (26%).
In the past, very high spend/revenue ratios have generally indicated that capacity has been increased too much and a market correction is imminent. In 2001, capacity utilization fell sharply from 2000, when demand for chips plummeted. However, unit shipments in 2021 are very strong compared to 2001, leading to an overall capacity utilization rate of nearly 94% for chipmakers.
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