The war for several days has not only hit Russia and Ukraine hard but also affected many industries around the world. After the war between the two countries, the United States, Britain, and many European countries jointly launched a number of sanctions against Russia. Among them, many companies participated and announced the suspension of product sales in Russia.
Apple Inc. of the United States issued a statement saying that it would suspend the sale of Apple products in Russia and restrict the function of Apple Pay. In addition, apps from Russia Today and Sputnik have also been removed from the Apple App Store outside of Russia.
There is no doubt that the remnants of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have also affected the smartphone market. This is also after the new crown epidemic, the market once again encountered a "black swan" event.
How does the war affect the market?
Recently, a first-tier brand supplier told Jiwei.com when talking about the order demand of end customers in the first half of the year: "From the current situation, the entire mobile phone market in the first half of this year is very weak; especially after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, We've seen forecasts adjusted for all of our clients."
In early February this year, the consulting agency TrendForce announced the global mobile phone market in 2022 before the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is estimated that the output of smartphones in 2022 will be about 1.39 billion units. For: Samsung 276 million, Apple 243 million, OPPO 208 million, Vivo 149 million.
However, only half a month later, the situation has undergone earth-shaking changes.
As we all know, today’s smartphone market share is highly concentrated, and the fluctuations in overall shipments are basically due to changes in product sales of leading companies. Therefore, any company involved in sanctions against Russia will have an impact on market shipments. An analyst from a consulting agency told Jiwei.com: "A while ago, major institutions were actively doing predictive analysis. Although the contradiction between the two countries still exists, after all, there is no official war. Now is the moment."
The analyst pointed out: " The sales forecast of the mobile phone market this year will be lowered, but the situation in Europe is complicated and changeable, so everyone has no bottom, and I don't know how much to adjust . It is certain that the demand will not be good, but the specific It’s hard to say how bad it is, it mainly depends on the extent to which the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by several countries will develop.”
In response, Strategy Analytics analyst Woody Oh said that other leading Russian smartphone OEMs are likely to join Apple's actions in Russia in the next few days, and if the current situation persists for a few weeks or months, the Russian smartphone market will not be affected. It is likely to be severely affected, as Russia has been one of the top five countries in smartphone shipments in recent years, as well as the top ten countries in smartphone revenue.
Although the Russian domestic market may have a greater impact, judging from the information obtained by Jiwei.com, the current industrial chain and analysis institutions hold the same view on the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and believe that if the conflict can be resolved in the short term End, then the impact on the mobile phone market is very limited.
In response to the statement made by Apple in the previous article, the analysts mentioned above added: "Due to the setback of Huawei's consumer business, Apple should be able to rank among the top three in the Russian mobile phone market, but only 34 million. Therefore, it can be judged that the overall demand will not be too large. Even the demand for mobile phones in Russia and Ukraine is estimated to be between 40-45 million units a year. Global mobile phone market shipments in 2022 Even if the volume declines, as a result, the overall impact is expected to be around 3%.”
The worst possible
It is worth noting that some industry insiders said: "Based on the good relationship between China and Russia, it is reasonable to guess that it is impossible for Chinese mobile phone manufacturers to stop selling products to Russia. It will also be passed on to Chinese brands.” According to the Russian mobile phone market shipment report released by Counterpoint Research, the country’s mobile phone market share is basically occupied by mainstream brands such as Samsung, Xiaomi, Apple, and Huawei.
Obviously, several domestic first-line brands have established brand effects in Russia; especially after Huawei's market share fell sharply due to supply problems, the share of a group of manufacturers represented by Honor and Realme has increased significantly.
"We believe that among the top brands, Samsung is most likely to follow up on Apple's suspension of sales to Russia, and Samsung is currently the most popular high-end brand in Russia, with a considerable share; if the brand The same choice to temporarily ship to Russia is obviously beneficial for domestic brands that are eyeing them. In addition to being good for the end market, this situation is bound to create demand for the supply chain." The other party added.
It should be pointed out that if the conflict situation continues to deteriorate, the subsequent exchange rate and inflation issues will have a greater impact on the global economy and the entire mobile phone industry chain.
The industry person also pointed out: "From a good point of view, this war should not be able to drag on for too long; then if the two countries want to recover their economies, they must start from what they are doing; natural gas should be produced, and natural gas should be produced. Food should be produced, and oil should be produced by oil... Because only when goods can go out can money come in. But in the worst case, the energy crisis caused by the conflict between the two sides will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the global economy. have a wide-ranging impact.”
Not only that, but the international research institute Strategy Analytics also mentioned in the report that in the worst case, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will trigger a global energy crisis and a global economic recession. Global smartphone manufacturing and supply chains will also be disrupted on a massive scale. By 2022, the global smartphone market will shrink significantly, affecting suppliers in all regions of the world.
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