A well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo looked down on the demand for consumer electronics, especially the mobile phone supply chain of the Android camp. MediaTek has cut orders for 5G chips in the fourth quarter by 35%, and Qualcomm's 8 series has also reduced by 15%, and subsequent old models will be auctioned at reduced prices.
Ming-Chi Kuo said that since his survey published on March 31, major Chinese Android brands have once again cut orders for about 100 million units . At present, the smartphone shipments of Xiaomi/OPPO/vivo/Transsion/Honor in 2022 are estimated to be about 160 million/160 million/115 million/70 million/55 million (units) respectively.
In addition, MediaTek and Qualcomm have cut orders for 5G chips in the second half of this year. MediaTek has cut orders by 30-35% in the fourth quarter (mainly low-end and mid-range) . At present, the SM8475 (Snapdragon 8 Gen1 Plus) and SM8550 (Snapdragon 8 Gen 2) shipment estimates remain unchanged, but Qualcomm has already cut orders for other high-end Snapdragon 8 series in the second half of the year by about 10-15% .
Ming-Chi Kuo also said that Qualcomm expects to reduce the prices of the existing SM8450 (Snapdragon 8 Gen 1) and SM8475 (Snapdragon 8 Gen1 Plus) by 30-40% after shipping the SM8550 (Snapdragon 8 Gen 2) at the end of this year. Eliminate inventory.
Ming-Chi Kuo also predicts that the shipments of CCM (mobile phone camera modules) and lenses for Android-branded mobile phones in China are expected to decline by 20-30% year-on-year in the third quarter. The total inventory of the top five CIS (CMOS Image Sensor) suppliers of the Chinese Android brand has exceeded 550 million.
Ming-Chi Kuo said that while the Chinese Android brand continued to cut orders, Samsung also cut orders by about 10% to 275 million mobile phone shipments in 2022. Overall, iPhone shipment momentum is still better than Android.
Guo Mingji's views are as follows:
1. 5G chips and cameras are key components of mobile phones. The 5G chips of the Chinese Android brand are in line with the camera shipment trend in 2H22, pointing out that this year may not be a busy season.
2. The Chinese Android brand has cut orders, indicating weak demand in China, Europe and emerging markets.
3. Because the lead time of 5G chips will be longer than that of general components, MediaTek and Qualcomm cut orders in 4Q22/2H22, which means that demand may not improve until 1Q23.
4. The impact of 5G chip order cuts is higher than that of camera components. The reasons are: (1) ASP will decline at the same time as the orders are cut due to competition, which will accelerate the decline of revenue and profit, (2) the price increase of high-end processes will further squeeze Pressure on the profits of 5G chips.
5. The market consensus on MediaTek and Qualcomm's revenue and profit in 3Q22-1Q23 may be further revised.
6. Some stocks that have fallen deeply recently may have the opportunity to rebound, but investors are advised to avoid stocks related to Android smartphones.
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