Analyst: The shortage of semiconductor chip production capacity will be eased in stages from the end of this year

As the global economic and political uncertainty continues, whether the semiconductor industry has reached a staged cycle turning point has become a topic of concern. The latest research report of the ANZ economic research team shows that the semiconductor cycle has reached its peak, and the year-on-year growth of semiconductor production capacity is estimated to reach 9-16% in 2022. Since the inventory index has reached the equilibrium point, the shortage problem has been alleviated, and the production capacity growth rate It will slow to 4-8% in 2023.

The research team pointed out that semiconductors are widely used and the shortages are not consistent, so capacity performance may ease in stages. For example, the production capacity of mature process chips will cross the peak at the end of 2022, while advanced process chips are expected to ease in 2023.

The rapid tightening of global monetary policy and the violent fluctuations in the financial market has a huge impact on the market index dominated by technology stocks. The Aosheng research team believes that this is very unfavorable for the valuation of the technology industry.

In addition, factors such as high inflation rates affecting consumer and business spending, slowing global economic growth, and other factors will also dampen demand for technology, and rising bank interest rates will increase the cost of capital, which may adversely affect semiconductor expansion plans.

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