According to the latest report from Morgan Stanley. This will also cause pricing to start to normalize faster than expected, with a downward trend expected from 2023. At recent corporate earnings conferences, Intel, AMD and Nvidia all lowered their outlooks for PC and gaming GPUs and adjusted server demand slightly due to weak demand and rising inventories. The revenue of Xinxing, a major Taiwanese ABF carrier board manufacturer, also declined slightly in July .
Based on the supply chain survey and the latest data, Morgan Stanley believes that starting from Q4 this year, it is unlikely that the price will rise. The ABF substrate market will experience an oversupply from 2022 to 2025, with an oversupply of about 1% in 2022, expanding to 3% in 2025.
Morgan Stanley expects Intel and Nvidia suppliers such as Xinxing and Jingshuo to be affected . Taking Xinxing as an example, capacity adjustments are taking place as PC demand declines. As for Jingshuo, a survey by Morgan Stanley found that Nvidia cut orders by 20-25% in Q4, but Jingshuo is optimistic that other customers will be able to fill this capacity.
The report also mentioned that changes in product mix may still drive up pricing and margins, but Morgan Stanley expects ABF carrier pricing to normalize from Q2 2023, and ABF carrier suppliers are expected to see their net profit begin to decline as well. .
According to Jiwei.com, ABF carrier board is a high-density semiconductor packaging substrate that can realize high-speed and multi-functional LSI chips. It can be used in CPU, GPU, high-end servers, ASIC for network routers/converters, and MPU for high-performance game consoles. , high-performance ASSP, FPGA and ADAS in in-vehicle equipment, etc.
Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, the demand for LSI chips such as CPU and GPU has doubled, which has led to a shortage of production capacity of high-end ABF carrier boards since 2020, which has continued to this day.
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