The 17th cycle of the semiconductor industry has officially arrived

Well-known semiconductor industry analyst Malcolm Penn said a few days ago that data from WSTS and other sources confirmed that the global semiconductor market fell into a rare downturn in June, marking the end of the current super-economic cycle, and the 17th cycle fluctuation in history has officially arrived.

According to Penn's analysis, the decline in PC and smartphone shipments has begun to affect the production of upstream semiconductor products. Many second-tier foundries and IDM companies have reported that their capacity loads have dropped and the pace of production expansion has slowed. He also revealed that there are wafer Factories have re-offered discounts on new orders to maintain their capacity utilization.

Penn also said that although TSMC is still in a dominant competitive position, it is difficult to avoid cyclical effects in the coming year. If it continues to raise prices, it may face accusations from customers and competitors of abusing its monopoly, which requires TSMC to weigh carefully.

According to Penn's forecast, after the global IC shipments and ASP both dropped in June, the impact will be transmitted to new orders, and the intensive production of new fab capacity will further exacerbate the changes in supply and demand.

Penn said that based on current market data, its forecast for a 22% IC market contraction in 2023, updated in May, may be revised down further.

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