Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple will cut orders by 20%-30% before mass production of Apple's new MacBook Pro 14/16-inch

Before the launch of Apple's new iPhone 14 series, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple is lowering its shipment forecast for the new MacBook Pro 14-inch and 16-inch and that Apple plans to start in the fourth quarter of 2022. mass-produce these products.

 Ming-Chi Kuo said that Apple will cut orders by 20-30% before mass production of the new MacBook Pro 14-inch and 16-inch models, which is a potential structural risk for the high-end ABF and Mini-LED industries.

According to Ming-Chi Kuo's latest survey, the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro will enter mass production in 4Q22. However, before mass production, Apple cut orders for 4Q22 shipments of new models by 20-30%. Significantly lower than expected MacBook Pro demand is a structural risk to the ABF substrate and Mini-LED industries.

It is very rare for Apple to cut orders before the peak season/new product mass production, which means that demand is significantly lower than expected, so MacBook shipments may continue to decline YoY at least in 1H23.

The economic recession and the slump in WFH demand are the main reasons for the order cut, and these two negative effects may last for at least 6-9 months.

The only major upgrade for the new 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pros is the new processor, and limited new selling points may also be the reason for lower-than-expected demand.

The biggest selling point of the MacBook Pro is the Apple processor (using a high-end ABF carrier board) and Mini-LED display, so MacBook Pro demand is significantly lower than expected, which is a structural risk for the high-end ABF carrier board and Mini-LED industry.

4Q22 overall MacBook shipment forecast is revised down by 15-20% due to new MacBook Pro orders, and MacBook shipments will decline by 10-15% YoY in 2022 (vs. market consensus is a 5-10% YoY decline).

The shipping time of MacBook Pro standard models/custom models on Apple's official website has been significantly reduced from "4-6 weeks / 6-8 weeks" 2-3 months ago to "in stock / within 1 week" now ”, mainly due to a significant decline in demand.

In recent years, the expansion of the ABF industry is mainly to meet the optimistic expectations of Apple processors and Intel server processors. Following the slowdown in Intel server processor shipments, the potential risks of MacBook Pro / high-end Apple processor orders cut in 4Q22 and YoY decline in 1H23 shipments will increase the probability of high-end ABF capacity oversupply in 2023.

Mini-LED demand is mainly driven by Apple. The potential risk of the MacBook Pro order cut in 4Q22 and the YoY decline in 1H23 shipments may significantly weaken the momentum of Mini-LED device shipments in 2023.

Although Apple's MacBook sales are less than competitors, it also means that Apple's demand for high-end products is still not immune to economic recession/inflation, so investors should pay close attention to whether the demand for iPhone 14 Pro will also be affected by the economy. recession/inflation.

In November 2021, Apple launched a new MacBook Pro in 14-inch and 16-inch sizes, along with a new mini LED display, new ports, an improved design, and powerful M1 Pro and M1 Max chips.

According to Bloomberg, the new 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros may be released before WWDC23 next spring. Apple is also expected to host a Mac-focused event in October.

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