Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple's iPhone 14 Plus pre-orders are worse than iPhone 13 mini

Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a report saying that compared with the iPhone 13 series, the pre-order results of the iPhone 14 Pro Max, Pro, and the two standard models were good, neutral, and different.

The report notes that while the iPhone 14 series product mix has improved and the iPhone 14 Pro Max pre-orders are better than the iPhone 13 Pro Max, the current pre-order results are neutral for Apple. It is unclear whether Apple will increase its shipment forecast for the Pro model, but the possibility of iPhone 14 and 14 Plus (accounting for about 45% of overall iPhone 14 shipments) is increasing.

Ming-Chi Kuo mentioned in the report:

  • Delivery times of more than 4 weeks may reflect good demand, while the iPhone 14 Pro Max and 14 Pro both have delivery times of more than 4 weeks (pro-Max/Pro is about 6/5 weeks).
  • The iPhone 14 and 14 Plus will be in stock on launch day, reflecting sluggish demand. As it stands, pre-order results for the iPhone 14 and 14 Plus are worse than the iPhone SE 3 and iPhone 13 mini (both SE 3 and 13 mini have been cut in the first half of 2022).
  • The iPhone 14 Plus is the replacement for the iPhone 13 mini. However, this new product's pre-order result was significantly lower than expected, which means that Apple's product segmentation strategy for standard models this year has failed.
  • Slightly longer/similar lead times for iPhone 14 Pro Max / 14 Pro (compared to iPhone 13 Pro Max / 13 Pro), and even shorter lead times for iPhone 14/14 Plus models (compared to iPhone 13/13 mini ) Compare).

Ming-Chi Kuo said that the pre-order result of the Pro model does not mean that Apple will immediately increase the order for the Pro model. Whether Apple will increase Pro orders depends on how long the strong demand for Pro models lasts during a recession. If demand for the iPhone 14 and 14 Plus does not improve after launch, Apple could cut it in November and subsequent shipment forecasts for the iPhone 14 and 14 Plus within a few weeks.

According to reports, based on current pre-order results, strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models is likely to continue until at least November. But assuming Apple doesn't increase orders for the iPhone Pro afterward, in which case the potential iPhone 14 and 14 Plus cutbacks could offset the decline in late Q4 2022 or 2023 due to a better iPhone mix (up iPhone ASP) Revenue growth for Apple in the first quarter.

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