At Goldman Sachs' latest technology conference, Nvidia's new CFO Colette Kress delivered a forty-minute speech, almost half of which emphasized "the need to solve the problem of gaming graphics cards. overproduction crisis in the field".
Graphics card prices have reached almost normal levels, and the company will be able to return to growth in product deliveries by next spring, she said. She also confirmed that Nvidia will be launching a new graphics architecture soon.
According to reports, in the past five years, Nvidia's gaming division revenue has increased by an average of 20% per year, of which about half comes from the increase in the average price of graphics cards and a half from the increase in the number of graphics card sales. Nvidia's gaming division revenue has grown by 70% since the outbreak, mainly due to an increase in average prices, and of course shipments.
In the long run, Nvidia management sees an opportunity for further growth in ASPs for gaming graphics cards, but conditions are not conducive to that. First, they have accumulated a lot of current-generation graphics cards in their warehouses. Secondly, when the epidemic was severe, and during the mining boom, they had already formed such a high foundation that it was difficult to surpass the achievements made at that time under the current economic conditions.
Regarding the consequences of the mining boom, Colette-Kress dared not quantify the impact of this factor on the company's sales in 2021, despite her analysis after the last wave of the "crypto craze." The newly minted Nvidia CFO believes that the impact of aftermarket graphics cards on current sales is limited. But unlike the used car market, evaluating the condition of used graphics cards is very difficult, which is why gamers prefer to buy new cards.
Ms. Kress mentioned that the demand for GPUs is already very high, but many finished products are still backlogged in warehouses, which is why the company has been forced to reduce deliveries. Our ultimate goal is to meet this demand and make those people understand that GPU prices are now close to normal levels, which is also our expectation.
Nvidia's chief financial officer said the company has worked hard to get rid of excess inventory through pricing methods to stimulate demand and expects a return to normalization in a few quarters. By the end of the fourth business quarter, which is January, there will likely be the talk of normalizing graphics card inventories in warehouses, Kress said. Shipments of Nvidia Corp's gaming graphics chips are expected to grow again between February and April.
Nvidia will show its skills at GTC 2022 this month when you will see the next-generation Ada Lovelace series GPU products. According to previous revelations, there is a high probability that the RTX 4090 will go first, and then the RTX 4080 will be launched next month, and the RTX 4070 can be seen under optimistic circumstances.
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