TrendForce estimated that the annual growth of server shipments will converge to 3.7% in 2023

According to the latest survey by TrendForce, the material situation that was tight after the epidemic improved in the second half of this year, and the supply and delivery of short-term materials have recovered significantly. However, under the condition that the supply of materials is safe and the demand can be satisfied, the annual growth rate of server shipments in 2023 is only 3.7%, which is lower than 5.1% in 2022.

According to TrendForce, the slowdown in growth is affected by three factors. First, after the long-term and short-term material problem has eased, buyers are also adjusting past excess orders, so ODM orders have also decreased, but it will not affect the server integration in 2022 for the time being. Machine shipments. Second, due to the impact of high inflation and a weakening economy, corporate capital expenditures may be more conservative, and IT-related investments will be more flexible, such as replacing some end servers with cloud services. Third, changes in the international situation have made the demand for small-scale data centers continue to emerge, and the construction of super-large-scale data centers in the past will slow down.

From the perspective of the server DRAM capacity on the whole machine, since the buyer will import the new CPU intel Sapphire Rapids and AMD Genoa in 2023, and the price of DDR5 DRAM is also 30~40% higher than that of DDR4, together with CPU, Memory and related new machines The cost of all kinds of components has increased significantly. Since the demand for server terminals will be more focused on hardware costs, the average capacity of DRAM on the whole machine is actually limited. Therefore, it is expected that the average annual increase of server DRAM capacity in 2023 will only be 7%, which is the first time since 2016. 10% or less.

If server DRAM prices continue to be revised sharply, the average installed capacity is still expected to rebound in 2023

The report said that the average capacity of server DRAM in 2023 is still likely to rise to 12% because in terms of server DRAM prices in 2022, the prices received by Tier 1 customers in the third quarter have fallen below a record low, 2023 Year-on-year price trends continued to decline. If the original factory is also willing to release a larger price discount for the high-capacity 64GB module, it will have the opportunity to stimulate the buyer to increase the purchasing power. This situation will prompt some servers to use other DRAMs to increase the capacity of the whole machine, such as the demand for DRAM. The largest video streaming, public cloud, and private cloud areas, thereby increasing the capacity of server DRAM.

As for the average capacity of enterprise SSDs, as the price drop in the fourth quarter of this year expands to 15-20%, and it is still difficult to improve the oversupply situation in 2023, quotations may continue to face revisions. However, since the price of NAND Flash is more flexible than that of DRAM, the price reduction will stimulate the increase in the installed capacity of the whole machine. In addition, the new-generation CPU platform supports PCIe 5.0 transmission, and the doubling of the transmission speed will also help the average capacity to grow upwards. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of enterprise SSD capacity will increase to 26.4% in 2023.

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