TSMC's foundry will increase prices next year

TSMC reported that the wafer output in 2023 will increase across the board, of which 8 inches will increase by 6%, and 12 inches will increase by 3%~5%; legal entity It is expected that the probability of price increases is high; although the semiconductor industry is facing inventory adjustments, which will indirectly affect TSMC, TSMC is highly competitive, therefore, the evaluation maintains a range operation.

According to the market, IC designers confirmed that they had received a notification from TSMC that the wafers produced from next year will increase in an all-around way. Big customer Nvidia is also waiting for the opportunity to demand the same treatment.

The legal entity said that at present, it seems that TSMC has a high probability of raising prices in 2023. Due to the outbreak of the epidemic, TSMC will cancel the price discount measures of 2~3% for the first time in 2021. Most of TSMC’s price increases reflect the increase in cost prices. In 2022, it is reported that the price of mature processes above N16 will increase by 15~20%, and the price of N7 and more advanced processes will increase by 10%. Even if the price increase in 2023 is added by 3~6%, compared with other peers, the price is still high. is reasonable. At present, when the semiconductor market situation is reversed, it is rumored that the client hopes that the TSMC community will face difficulties and make profits.

In addition, the price fluctuation of high-end processes below N10 is lower than that of other processes, including only TSMC and Samsung, which can provide mass production below N10 in the world. With limited supply, the price is relatively stable; N5 and N3 are for many customers. They are all new processes, and there is no problem with price fluctuations at all. Unless the customer maintains the original process, there will be a problem with negotiating prices. Usually, larger customers place orders at TSMC, not only for a single process but also for other processes. TSMC will quote based on the order volume of individual customers.

Analysts pointed out that the greater impact on TSMC is that customers are slower to switch to new processes, and the ASP of higher-end processes is higher, which will have an impact on TSMC's overall ASP. Advanced processes are TSMC's main source of revenue. In the second quarter, TSMC's N5 process contributed 21% of revenue, N7 process contributed 30%, and processes below N7 contributed more than 50% of its performance. Another impact is that the business climate has deteriorated, the number of orders placed by customers has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. Especially in recent years, capital expenditure has increased significantly, and depreciation expenses have also increased. Once the capacity utilization rate has declined, the gross profit rate will be greatly affected.

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