JPMorgan: Apple's iPhone 14 Pro/Max supply shortage expected to last through year-end

JP Morgan Chase said that the supply interruption of Foxconn’s iPhone factory will definitely affect the shipment of the iPhone 14 / Pro series, but it is not clear how much the impact will be.

A note to investors from JPMorgan acknowledged that it was difficult to determine how much the iPhone factory was affected. However, analysts believe that the sudden and rapid increase in lead times for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max indicates a supply shortage that could last until the end of 2022.

While the biggest impact on iPhone supply is the holiday quarter - the first quarter of Apple's fiscal 2023, the full extent of production headwinds will only become clear when production can return to normal levels and factories return to full capacity.

JPMorgan Chase estimates that iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments fell by 5 million in the December quarter, and other iPhones fell by 3 million in the same period. This equates to an overall shipment forecast of 74 million for the period, down from 82 million.

Meanwhile, iPhone shipments in March are forecast to grow from 56 million to 61 million, with some unmet demand in December expected to flow into the March quarter.

For the full-year 2023, JPMorgan now estimates total iPhone sales at 237 million units, up from 239 million previously. That would imply a 4% year-over-year decline.

Revenue and earnings forecasts: JPMorgan sees Apple's December quarter revenue of $121 billion and EPS of $1.91, down from $128 billion and $2.14, respectively. That would be a 3% year-over-year decline in revenue and a 9% year-over-year decline in earnings.

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