According to preliminary data from the International Data Corporation (IDC), worldwide smartphone shipments declined 18.3% year over year to 300.3 million units in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22). This marks the largest-ever decline in a single quarter and contributed to a steep 11.3% decline for the year. 2022 ended with shipments of 1.21 billion units, which represents the lowest annual shipment total since 2013.
Cause of Decline
"We have never seen shipments in the holiday quarter come in lower than the previous quarter. However, weakened demand and high inventory caused vendors to cut back drastically on shipments," said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's Worldwide Tracker team. "Heavy sales and promotions during the quarter helped deplete existing inventory rather than drive shipment growth. Vendors are increasingly cautious in their shipments and planning while realigning their focus on profitability."
The decline in smartphone shipments can be attributed to several factors such as dampened consumer demand, inflation, and economic uncertainties. Additionally, even Apple, which has been relatively immune to such downturns, suffered a setback in its supply chain with unforeseen lockdowns at its key factories in China.
"What this holiday quarter tells us is that rising inflation and growing macro concerns continue to stunt consumer spending even more than expected and push out any possible recovery to the very end of 2023," said Popal.
Consumer Demand Dwindling
"We continue to witness consumer demand dwindle as refresh rates climb past 40 months in most major markets," said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "With 2022 declining more than 11% for the year, 2023 is set up to be a year of caution as vendors will rethink their portfolio of devices while channels will think twice before taking on excess inventory."
However, there is some hope for the future as consumers may find even more generous trade-in offers and promotions continuing well into 2023 as the market will think of new methods to drive upgrades and sell more devices, specifically high-end models.
Outlook for 2023
The decline in smartphone shipments in 2022 puts the 2.8% recovery expected for 2023 in serious jeopardy with heavy downward risk to the forecast. Vendors and channels will need to rethink their strategies in order to drive growth and recovery in the market. Consumers may also see more attractive offers and promotions as companies try to drive upgrades and sell more devices.
In conclusion, the worldwide smartphone shipments decline 18.3% year over year to 300.3 million units in the fourth quarter of 2022, marking the largest-ever decline in a single quarter and contributing to a steep 11.3% decline for the year. The decline can be attributed to dampened consumer demand, inflation, and economic uncertainties. The outlook for 2023 is uncertain, and vendors and channels will need to rethink their strategies in order to drive growth and recovery in the market.
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